By the time of going to print we could know who the American President will be for the next four years. For me if it is Donald Trump I will have lost a lot of faith in humanity.
There is not one single value in his dealings that I can resonate with. For me, his communication on Twitter is vulgar, his deference towards women is despicable, and his persona is nothing short of overbearing. You may guess by now that I have no respect for this man and I do not think he is the very best a population of 330 million can produce.
In fairness though most 77-year-olds have their feet up enjoying retirement, unlike his competitor in Joe Biden, who has also embarked on a gruelling campaign across the country. He really did look like an old man when shown on the campaign circuit slowly trailing behind Barack Obama who had just shot a classy basketball hoop and looked like the all-America cool kid. So why is this election a battle of the pensioners? The truth is politics is not an appealing career choice for the vast majority of people.
Politics is such an important element of the business world that I am often surprised how few businesspeople get involved in politics- Trump aside (if you don’t look too closely into his business dealings). For me there should be far greater interaction between business and politicians. This is especially so in Northern Ireland where politics is so polarised. This shouldn’t consist of business organisations and groups having to beg for support or interactions. For me, we should have committees of experts in their respective fields guiding our politicians all the time; not just when we are in a pandemic as we see with the current involvement of medical experts in decision making.
I digress from the US election but a recent example of this is the advisory committee Stormont minister Nichola Mallon set up to deliver "sustainable and inclusive" infrastructure. The panel is chaired by Institute of Directors regional head Kirsty McManus and will look at projects relating to water, drainage and inland waterways, public transport, roads and cycling infrastructure.
I believe it would benefit our little part of the world in the long run if we could see a lot more of this political/business collaboration.
I did say I digress because I do want to talk about the US election and what the two different outcomes could mean for Northern Ireland.
A survey last month by the Pew Research Center found only 19% of Britons have confidence in Mr Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. Transatlantic relations over the past four years have been strained to say the least even through Trump has been known to call Boris Johnson ‘Britain Trump’. Even Boris Johnson probably doesn’t see this as a compliment.
For many they see Trump’s attitude to Ireland as one of perhaps indifference and certainly not same affinity to Irish US relations as had been shown by previous Presidents, despite his facilities in Doonbeg.
The question for a second term is whether Trump would become even more extreme; or whether he would moderate his behaviour looking towards legacy. The impact this could have on a Brexit trade deal with the UK could be telling. If he becomes even more extreme it will be difficult to tie in the idea of lowering food standards with the recent win by food and farming campaigners in the UK. The Government has now agreed to a permanent body that will examine trade deals before they are signed.
In reality with a rising Covid-19 crisis and a global agenda including tensions with China and Iran, a Brexit trade deal with the UK could be the least of Mr Trump’s concerns.
If Joe Biden wins it is expected that there would be a much less volatile relationship between the UK and US going forward. How ever his strong opposition to Brexit could make it an interesting relationship indeed.
For Northern Ireland, in relation to our precarious in-out, foot in both camps Brexit a win by Joe Biden would be widely welcomed. That is obviously my opinion as a staunch opposer of Brexit. His local roots just south of the border has given him a natural empathy towards our situation.
The Trump administration didn’t fill the Special Envoy to Northern Ireland until March 2020 even though this was considered a previously instrumental position. The new envoy Mick Mulvaney has reiterated that a return to any hard border in Ireland would prevent a trade deal with the UK going ahead. This is something that the UK Government will be very mindful of if Biden is successful. Trump could change his mind on a whim, Biden would take a much firmer and definitive stance.
It is also expected that Biden would return to the position of keeping the US ‘hand in’, in relation to the peace process here and honouring the Good Friday Agreement.
The outcome is certainly not clear cut but I know that despite my misgivings about some aspects of Joe Biden, I will be absolutely rooting for him. It will certainly be an intense battle.
Comments